一文读懂「做市商」是怎么玩的?

你是一个期货市场的做市商,现在有一个订单薄(order book),它长这个样子:


我们先做一些假设:这个市场没有其他投资者发布限价单,你是这个市场唯一的流动性提供者,也就是说你是唯一的做市商;最小价格变动单位是0.01;所有吃单(taker)需要支付0.025%的手续费,所有挂单(maker)获得0.01%的返利。

你是做市商market maker,是挂单的一方,市场上所有和你市价成交的单子,你都能拿到0.01%的返利。
最优买价和最优卖价之间的价差(best bid和best offer,简称bb/o)叫做spread,当前订单薄的spread是0.01。
现在,有一笔市价卖单进来了,会和你的买一价100成交。这笔交易你付出了100,而对方实际只收到了100-0.025*100=99.975,其中的0.025(100*0.025%)是手续费,而你可以拿到其中0.01%的返利,所以你实际只付出了99.99
因为买一被拿掉了,所以订单薄的结构变了,现在的spread变成了0.02。但是市价还是100,因为这是最后一个成交的价格


如果此刻有一笔买单进来,将会和你的卖一价100.01成交。上一笔单子你以99.99的价格买入,这里再以100.01的价格卖出,赚到0.02,再加上返利,这一买一卖的总利润大约可以达到0.03。
尽管你的买一(100)和卖一(100.01)的spread只有0.01,但是实际利润高达0.03!
如果源源不断的市价单进来和你成交,每一次买卖你都可以赚到0.03,这样积累下来,发家指日可待
但是很遗憾,市场并没有如你预期般顺利发展,在你以99.99的价格接货后,现货市场的价格立刻从100下跌到99.80,你立刻撤掉了99.99和99.98的买单,以免被别人套利

因为现在的价格是已经跌到了99.80,你的卖一还是100.01,这个价格太高了,没有人会以这个价格和你成交。当然你也可以把卖一下调到99.81,但是将会产生0.17的亏损。

别忘了,你是市场上唯一的做市商,你完全可以利用这个优势,调整订单薄,把亏损打到最低!

你计算了一下以什么价格挂卖单,能保本出局。你以99.99的价格接货,想要卖个保本价平掉这一单,卖一就要挂在99.98(因为加上返利,实际到手是99.99,刚好不亏不赚)。

于是你调整了一下订单薄,在买一和买二分别挂上了99.80和99.79的单子,并在卖一挂上了99.98的单子:


尽管现在的价差很大,但你是市场上唯一的做市商,你可以决定不降低卖单价格。如果有人愿意以99.98的卖一价格成交,那皆大欢喜。如果没有,也没关系,因为你的买单价格已经下调到了99.80,会有市价单进来和你成交。
此时,有市价买单进来和你的买一成交。现在你手上有2份合约,持仓成本会平摊到:(99.79+99.99)/2=99.89。(上一笔我们以99.99的价格成交,这一笔以99.79的价格成交,比买单价格更低成交是因为我们有0.01%的手续费返利。)

OK,现在平均持仓成本降低到了99.89,你调低你的卖一价,从99.98调低到99.89。突然间,巨大的报价差缩小了一半。接下来,你可以不断地通过这样操作,逐步减少成本,缩小价差。
上面这个例子里,价格只波动了0.2%,如果价格突然波动5%、10%甚至更多呢?即使用上面的办法操作,也可能会导致亏损,因为价差太大了!
因此做市商要研究2个问题:

  • 在不同的时间窗口下,价格的波动性有多大?
  • 市场的成交量大小?

波动性简单来说,就是价格离其均值的偏离程度,不同的时间窗口下价格的波动性是不同的。一个品种可能在1分钟级别的k线图上上蹿下跳,而在日线图上的走势波澜不惊。成交量则告诉我们了流动性,流动性会影响挂单的spread和成交频率。


上面的图演示了4种价格波动,对不同的波动情况,做市商要选择不同的应对方式:

如果市场整体的波动率较低,每日波动率和日内波动率都很低,则应该选择较小的报价差,以最大化交易量。

如果每日波动率低,但是日内的波动率高(也就是说价格虽然大幅波动,但并没有实质性变化),你可以扩大报价差spread,并且用更大的订单量。如果价格朝不利方向运动,可以采用上面说的摊低平均成本的办法来减少亏损。

如果每日波动率高,但是日内波动率低(换而言之,价格以平稳的步调走出了趋势),这时候你应该用更小的、紧密的报价差spread。

如果每日波动率和日内波动率都很高,你应该扩大价差spread,且使用更小的订单量。这是最危险的市场情况⚠️,经常吓跑其他的做市商,当然危机并存,也蕴藏着很多机会。大多数时间做市商会赚取稳定的收益,但是市场脾气怪的时候,会击穿你订单薄的一侧,迫使你亏损出局。
第一篇文章到这里就结束了,作者的第二篇文用数学方式说明了做市商如何选择spread和mid price(中间价),因为确实太偏理论化,后面就不做翻译了,大家有兴趣可以去读读(需要科学上网):
第一篇文章出处:https://medium.com/@idrawcharts/how-market-making-works-poorly-illustrated-128b5ae8304d第二篇文章出处:https://idrawcharts.medium.com/market-making-article-2-not-illustrated-but-much-more-in-depth-25f1257656ac
TIPS:大家可以用ChatPDF或者GPT读英文书刊。
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puppy按不同市场整理的各种研报

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