一个隐蔽的偷价行为
在说这件事之前，先来聊聊label的事儿。
label就是你预测的目标，它是一个未来的值，最常见的是未来的收益率，第二常见的是未来的波动率，它还可以再复杂一些，比如未来一个固定收益率的阈值，预测的目标是收益率会不会超过这个固定的阈值。
label可以是一个连续的值，比如连续的收益率或者波动率。也可以是简单的-1/0/1分类，分别对应下跌、持平和上涨。
上面是label的背景。现在我把label锁定为未来的收益率，有几种方式可以计算收益率。
我一般采用两种方式计算收益率。第一种是用收盘价来算，第二种是用vwap来算，可以算对数收益率，也可以算百分比收益率。
用哪一种价格来算收益率好呢?
收盘价是一个采样价格，是最后交易时段的一个瞬时价格，它反映了价格的最终走势。缺点也显而易见，它没有考虑到整个时间段的成交量信息，并且在流动性较低时，这个采样价格可能会被操纵。
我经常看到一些策略分享，这些分钟级别的策略用收盘价撮合回测，最后得到了一条四十五度笔直向上冲的曲线——这往往都是自娱自乐的假象，真实交易的时候spread会把微薄的利润吃干抹净。
另一种vwap价格，它考虑了整个时段的成交量，反映了一个更公允的价格水平，也更难被操纵。但由于vwap是基于整个交易时段的价格和成交量来计算的，它是一个累积的值，所以在价格波动时vwap并不能迅速做出反应。
思虑再三，我决定用能刻画整个交易时间段成交量信息的vwap，来计算收益率，进而用来寻找优秀的因子。在构造好初始特征和算法后，一锅一锅的因子应运而生。
接下来，我紧锣密鼓地把这批因子喂进模型，得到最后的仓位，然后测算真实的回测收益。
就在这一步，我犯了个很傻笔的错误。在测算真实回测收益时，我用到的收益率是vwap的收益率。于是…
几乎所有样本内外的回测长的都像上图，一根根45°拔地而起的窜天猴让我喜出望外，感觉明天就能把摊子支棱起来了。
但是心里隐隐约约觉得肯定有不对的地方，然后我回过头来仔细检查，我的回测代码和数据都木有问题，错就错在vwap来计算收益率这个地方。
不仅仅因为vwap是一个不能被成交到的价格，而且这个vwap还有一个隐藏的坑，它还包含了一部分已经发生的历史信息，这一段信息已经被很多因子描述出来了，我获得了错误的价格优势，所以回测曲线呈现出vwap收益率和因子极为明显的线性关系。
然后我重新调整到用收盘价来计算收益率，终于得到了合理的稳定亏损曲线，好了可以洗洗睡了：
以上就是一个傻逼错误从产生到被发现的故事。
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Failure to leave gaps like this in-between cycles,
in our expertise, can lead to permanent damage to the HPT (hypothalamic-pituitary-testicular) axis.
Bodybuilders also stack trenbolone with Anadrol; however, this should be
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Distinctive will increase in muscular strength are also to be anticipated, with customers generally adding 50
pounds to their compound lifts. You’ll usually discover that people stack it with Anavar and testosterone (usually the
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L-tryptophan is a vital amino acid, that means the physique can not produce it
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elevated adrenaline output may also end in insomnia. Curiously, we
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Nonprescription doses are often 10 to 100 instances higher than the doses
healthcare suppliers prescribe to deal with medical circumstances.
This is why the side effects are often extra severe than the unwanted effects of
prescribed anabolic steroid use. For athletes, rising muscle mass
may promote energy, which can enhance strength-based sports activities efficiency.
Anabolic steroids are drugs which would possibly be manufactured types of testosterone.
The technical term for these compounds is “anabolic-androgenic steroids”
(AAS). “Anabolic” refers to tissue building (mainly muscle), and “androgenic” refers to a bunch of intercourse hormones known as androgens.
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Clenbutrol additionally contains caffeine, which makes the consumer more energetic throughout an exercise session. We have
seen trenbolone cause a hefty rise in blood stress in almost all sufferers because of its potency and due
to its stimulative effects on the central nervous system (increasing adrenaline production).
Testosterone also has potent fat-burning properties,
with users experiencing a notable discount in subcutaneous fats.
Thus, despite testosterone’s highly effective anabolic nature, it can also be used as a slicing steroid.
Anadrol may be very suppressive; it takes several months for
endogenous testosterone ranges to appropriate back to a traditional
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It additionally improves your body’s capability to
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Deca Durabolin is usually utilized in bulking cycles
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We have discovered trenbolone to be the most powerful anabolic steroid on the market, well-known for its fast outcomes (with acetate) and distinctive ability to transform physique composition. We have
seen a first-time testosterone cycle add 20–30 pounds of lean muscle to users—even in conservative dosages.
Testosterone Cypionateis a synthetic model of the naturally produced testosterone hormonein the body.
It is an injectable steroid that has a long-lasting esterattached to it, which suggests it stays active
in the physique for anextended interval. Testosterone Cypionate is very
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The major difference between the 2 steroids is that Superdrol isn’t estrogenic,
so that you won’t have any gynecomastia or water retention concerns.
This is another good purpose to start with a really low
dose if it’s your first time utilizing this steroid.
Primobolan is one other steroid derived from DHT, which is relatively female-friendly at lower
doses. They should allow you as a feminine person to avoid androgenic side effects of
a virilizing nature.
Anadrol may have you gaining mass within the first
few weeks, and simply how much is dependent upon your exercises, diet, and
what quantity of cycles you’ve already carried out, however anticipate spectacular
results either means. Tren will ship super lean muscle and energy gains with
out water retention and boosting nutrient efficiency.
Stanozolol is an artificial anabolic steroid, which
is a by-product of dihydrotestosterone (DHT).
Cortisone injections are injections that can help cut back pain and inflammation in a
particular area of your physique. The joints most regularly injected with
them are your ankle, elbow, hip, knee, shoulder,
backbone, and wrist. Cortisone injections may help even the tiny joints in your palms or toes.
Watch out for signs of infection, similar to escalating pain, extended redness and
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There aren’t any estrogenic unwanted effects with Methenolone, making it a good cutting steroid with out water
retention. However, robust androgenic side effects are attainable, and ladies are suggested to retain a low dose and short duration of use of this steroid.
If you’re going to run a Primobolan cycle, check out my full Primobolan (Metenolone) cycle information. Realistically, pure dietary supplements are unimaginable to trigger any downside unless wrongly
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Their advantages are more inclined in the course of muscle recovery, excessive energy, and power, resulting in a better workout.
Muscle mass is not the primary concern right here, as they’re used more for recovery and increased power output (6,
7). Though traditionally thought of as a male hormone, ladies
additionally produce testosterone but in much smaller quantities.
It serves a quantity of features for women, primarily selling bone
density and a wholesome libido (2). Testosterone
certain to SHBG turns into inactivated; thus, the less SHBG, the upper the free testosterone
levels will be. With oral testosterone, 20 grams of dietary fat ought to be consumed with every dose for optimum absorption.
But with the popularity of on-line gross sales, few persons
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This is contrary to different oral steroids, that are C-17 alpha-alkylated and need to
be consumed on an empty abdomen for full
effects. This is as a result of of most orals being fat-soluble
and thus susceptible to decreased absorption via the gastrointestinal tract.
We often see Superdrol being utilized by advanced steroid
customers to take their physique to the next stage whereas sustaining
maximum muscle definition. Our sufferers have described Superdrol
as the oral equivalent of trenbolone, causing fast
changes in physique composition and dry muscle positive aspects.
Selecting the proper steroid cycle is a critical determination,
influenced by your gender, experience stage, and health goals.
There’s no one-size-fits-all answer to the “best” cycle,
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and when to use them for optimal outcomes. Aromatase
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The two teams who received to weight prepare (the 3rd and 4th groups) adopted the very same exercises every week.
Athletes used to make use of it to extend red blood cell
production, but afterward, they suffered from its unwanted side effects like bladder contractions and enlarged breasts.
Testosterone alternative therapy for when testosterone deficiency has been confirmed by medical tests.
Steroids are artificial substances equal to the male intercourse
hormone testosterone. Beginning with breaking down what precisely
are steroids and what are their types.
For occasion, penalties underneath the WADA code can embrace suspension from competition for two years
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No, steroid use is prohibited in skilled sports activities, and athletes
can face disqualification, penalties, and harm to their status in the event that they check positive for steroids.
To additional damage his probabilities in this 100-day steroids vs natural
competitors, Brandon also plays competitive tennis, which adds several hours of cardio on top
of his workouts. So, on this 100-day steroids vs natural experiment, Brandon will train naturally utilizing my science-backed strategies, whereas Todd is hopping on steroids.
Certain physiques simply aren’t attainable as a natural lifter, regardless of how onerous
and smart you train and the way on-point your food plan is.
Choosing between long-term, health-conscious methods and risky, short-term
shortcuts is ultimately what determines whether to
use steroids or dietary supplements. Even although steroids provide
rapid will increase, the dangers outweigh the advantages
for virtually all of individuals. When you mix natural supplements with a nutritious diet and regular exercise,
you’ll have the ability to achieve your ideal physique in a safer and extra sustainable method.
Secure bodybuilding choices not solely allow you to develop your physique but also protect
your future. Make wise selections, keep knowledgeable, and prioritize your well being as you try towards
your health goals. Doing it naturally is one of the only ways
to turn into a stronger, more healthy version of your self.
Faux natties typically reveal themselves through inconsistent
stories about their training regimens or gains. They might also display a
suspicious familiarity with performance-enhancing medication or use language that subtly hints
at their use. Shifting the focus to a direct comparability between natural and
steroid bodybuilding, it’s evident that each strategy has its unique
pros and cons. Moreover, the performance enhancement
that steroids offer comes with authorized
implications.
Natural supplements can offer similar advantages that will assist you achieve muscle
and enhance athletic efficiency. Since steroids enhance protein synthesis your muscles use the protein extra efficiently.
Steroids additionally velocity up the muscle recovery course of, after an intense exercise, most women will feel
sore for a few days, taking steroids will let you practice extra
regularly and require much less rest. 1) Steroid bodybuilding just isn’t for everybody as
a end result of using medication requires a large financial funding.
1) The outcomes are so gradual that even gaining 5
per cent of muscle mass requires coaching for a minimal of three months to see some desired results.
If you take a look on Google you’ll most likely find a great deal of studies talking about
the unwanted facet effects and risks of steroids.
What you don’t see that always is a examine that compares natural vs steroids and
appears at BOTH SIDES. You gotta admit that even when staying all pure
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If you haven’t used steroids earlier than, you may be wondering what
“steroid cycles” truly mean and what’s the proper approach to implement them.
Hence, we’ve gone the additional step to include this part in today’s information. In phrases of
appearance, the long-term use of HGH may cause
a distended-looking midbody (or “pregnant belly”) as a outcome of visceral fat accumulation. This occurs
as a end result of HGH’s interference with insulin production- it
makes the physique much less sensitive to
insulin, thereby increasing insulin resistance.
For 10 whole weeks, the boys received either real steroid injections
or simply fake (placebo) injections with no working substances.
The guys within the exercise groups had been understanding 3 times a week.
Just earlier than and just after the experiment
the men obtained a thorough bodily examination, measuring
issues like fat-free mass, muscle dimension, arm power,
and leg energy. However earlier than we dive deeper into the dark facet of steroids, let’s evaluate steroids vs natural
bodybuilding and see what science has to say about it.
And we’re going to combine these workout routines with
my second science-based principle. So with Brandon, we’re selecting exercises that maximize this stretch throughout all his major muscle teams.
I’ll need to use every science-based tool I know to assist Brandon supercharge his coaching.
The males who took testosterone injections constructed more than THREE TIMES as much muscle
as the men that went all pure within the similar time frame (13
kilos to only 4 pounds). All of their diets (protein intake, calorie consumption,
nutrient intake, and so forth.) had been standardized according to each person’s
body weight, recorded, verified and adjusted when wanted.
We will stroll you through everything that you need to learn about building a wholesome physique.